Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing23/31, 220 YDS, 2 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing18 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving8 REC, 86 YDS
Titans- Will LevisPassing19/32, 168 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing21 CAR, 102 YDS
- Calvin RidleyReceiving7 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:46Tank Bigsby 8 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)10–6
- Q412:09Cam Little 23 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q34:30Nick Folk 39 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q18:32Nick Folk 46 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:32Nick Folk 46 Yd Field GoalJAX 0 – 3 TEN · TEN 59% → 66% +8TEN 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q34:30Nick Folk 39 Yd Field GoalJAX 0 – 6 TEN · TEN 68% → 79% +11TEN 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q412:09Cam Little 23 Yd Field GoalJAX 3 – 6 TEN · JAX 17% → 30% +13JAX 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q46:46Tank Bigsby 8 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 10 – 6 TEN · JAX 26% → 75% +49JAX 26% → 75%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -3.5
- ML JAX +135 / TEN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEN -4
- TEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- TEN: Elo 64.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TEN -145
- JAX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 18.5 – 22.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −79 | +13 | JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence · TEN: Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TEN +104 Elo | TEN 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEN 63.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 59.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.0 | Points scored | 18.428th of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 27.727th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.3 | Margin | −9.330th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 4.9326th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.09 | Yards allowed per play | 4.944th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 31st of 320–5 | Road vs home | 1–425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 1–1 TEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.