Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Mitchell TrubiskyPassing15/21, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Ray DavisRushing15 CAR, 64 YDS
- Curtis SamuelReceiving7 REC, 52 YDS
Patriots- Joe MiltonPassing22/29, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- Antonio GibsonRushing12 CAR, 41 YDS
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving7 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Joey Slye 50 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q48:53Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q31:00Joey Slye 41 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q37:56James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass PAT Failed)16–14
- Q24:39Tyler Bass 49 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q29:10Kayshon Boutte 48 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Joey Slye Kick)7–14
- Q212:09Ray Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Tyler Bass Kick)7–7
- Q14:25Joe Milton III 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:25Joe Milton III 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)BUF 0 – 7 NE · NE 37% → 56% +19NE 37% → 56%+19 pts
- Q212:09Ray Davis 2 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 7 NE · BUF 41% → 62% +21BUF 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q29:10Kayshon Boutte 48 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Joey Slye Kick)BUF 7 – 14 NE · NE 39% → 60% +21NE 39% → 60%+21 pts
- Q37:56James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass PAT Failed)BUF 16 – 14 NE · BUF 43% → 66% +24BUF 43% → 66%+24 pts
- Q48:53Joey Slye 42 Yd Field GoalBUF 16 – 20 NE · NE 51% → 70% +19NE 51% → 70%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -3.5
- ML BUF -170 / NE +145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -16.5
- BUF 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +30.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 91.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -178
- NE +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 20.0 – 16.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1748 | 1286 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +17 | BUF: Josh Allen · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +409 Elo | BUF 91.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 83.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 89.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 64.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3231.8 | Points scored | 16.630th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 25.125th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.3 | Margin | −8.428th of 32 |
| 6th of 326.09 | Yards per play | 4.8228th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5522nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 NE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.