Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing23/34, 362 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing14 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- Ty JohnsonReceiving5 REC, 114 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing38/59, 494 YDS, 5 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing8 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving14 REC, 193 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:12Jameson Williams 3 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)48–42
- Q42:03Tyler Bass 41 Yd Field Goal48–35
- Q48:02Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)45–35
- Q411:51Ray Davis 5 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)45–28
- Q412:00Jahmyr Gibbs 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)38–28
- Q414:02Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field Goal38–21
- Q31:41Amon-Ra St. Brown 66 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)35–21
- Q33:31Khalil Shakir 3 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)35–14
- Q313:11James Cook 41 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)28–14
- Q23:01Dan Skipper 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)21–14
- Q28:15James Cook 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)21–7
- Q213:36Tim Patrick 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–7
- Q12:01Josh Allen 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)14–0
- Q110:56Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 7 – 0 DET · BUF 44% → 62% +18BUF 44% → 62%+18 pts
- Q213:36Tim Patrick 12 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)BUF 14 – 7 DET · DET 19% → 35% +17DET 19% → 35%+17 pts
- Q28:15James Cook 6 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 21 – 7 DET · BUF 66% → 83% +17BUF 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q23:01Dan Skipper 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)BUF 21 – 14 DET · DET 14% → 32% +18DET 14% → 32%+18 pts
- Q313:11James Cook 41 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 28 – 14 DET · BUF 70% → 88% +18BUF 70% → 88%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML BUF +120 / DET -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3.5
- DET 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DET: Elo 61.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -131
- BUF +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 26.5 – 29.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 55.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1707 | 1755 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +83 Elo | DET 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.5 | Points scored | 32.11st of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.6 | Points allowed | 18.02nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.9 | Margin | +14.11st of 32 |
| 6th of 325.98 | Yards per play | 6.104th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.47 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4016th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 32 |
| 12th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.