New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing12/18, 112 YDS, 2 INT
- Breece HallRushing10 CAR, 45 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/27, 182 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing15 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyrell ShaversReceiving1 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Tyler Conklin 20 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–40
- Q46:59Garrett Wilson 9 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Tyrod Taylor Pass to Tyler Conklin for Two-Point Conversion)8–40
- Q412:37Tyrell Shavers 69 Yd pass from Mitchell Trubisky (Tyler Bass Kick)0–40
- Q30:12Keon Coleman 14 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–33
- Q31:15James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)0–26
- Q35:13Amari Cooper 30 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)0–19
- Q20:00Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field Goal0–12
- Q22:31Aaron Rodgers Sacked by AJ Epenesa For 2 Yd Loss for Safety0–9
- Q18:11Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)NYJ 0 – 7 BUF · BUF 81% → 91% +10BUF 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q22:31Aaron Rodgers Sacked by AJ Epenesa For 2 Yd Loss for SafetyNYJ 0 – 9 BUF · BUF 90% → 93% +3BUF 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q20:00Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 12 BUF · BUF 93% → 96% +3BUF 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q35:13Amari Cooper 30 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)NYJ 0 – 19 BUF · BUF 97% → >99% +3BUF 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q31:15James Cook 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)NYJ 0 – 26 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -10.5
- ML NYJ +425 / BUF -650
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -15
- BUF 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 89.6%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -477
- NYJ +477 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 17.0 – 27.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1741 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | — | NYJ: Aaron Rodgers · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +374 Elo | BUF 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 87.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 82.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3219.5 | Points scored | 31.32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 22.113th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.5 | Margin | +9.22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.18 | Yards per play | 6.125th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.96 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5824th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.