Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing14/19, 110 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing23 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving8 REC, 56 YDS
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing28/42, 256 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallRushing14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:17Joshua Karty 45 Yd Field Goal19–9
- Q410:11Tyler Higbee 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)16–9
- Q412:44Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field Goal9–9
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q26:22Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty PAT Failed)6–6
- Q10:23Davante Adams 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:23Davante Adams 11 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Anders Carlson PAT Failed)LAR 0 – 6 NYJ · NYJ 41% → 59% +17NYJ 41% → 59%+17 pts
- Q26:22Kyren Williams 2 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty PAT Failed)LAR 6 – 6 NYJ · LAR 39% → 58% +19LAR 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q20:00Anders Carlson 21 Yd Field GoalLAR 6 – 9 NYJ · NYJ 43% → 54% +11NYJ 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q412:44Joshua Karty 38 Yd Field GoalLAR 9 – 9 NYJ · LAR 38% → 55% +16LAR 38% → 55%+16 pts
- Q410:11Tyler Higbee 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 16 – 9 NYJ · LAR 54% → 88% +34LAR 54% → 88%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -2.5
- ML LAR -160 / NYJ +137
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -4.5
- LAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- LAR: Elo 65.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -149
- NYJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 24.5 – 22.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +18 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +108 Elo | LAR 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 59.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 20.222nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 23.218th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.0 | Margin | −3.021st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.43 | Yards per play | 5.1919th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 4.974th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.