New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing22/36, 261 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing12 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Kayshon BoutteReceiving5 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Bills- Josh AllenPassing16/29, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing11 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- James Cook IIIReceiving3 REC, 26 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:13Hunter Henry 9 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)21–24
- Q410:10Taron Johnson fumble recovery in end zone (Tyler Bass Kick)14–24
- Q36:02Tyler Bass 50 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q39:41James Cook 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)14–14
- Q211:56James Cook 46 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)14–7
- Q214:16Rhamondre Stevenson 14 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)14–0
- Q112:01Kayshon Boutte 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:01Kayshon Boutte 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)NE 7 – 0 BUF · NE 14% → 26% +12NE 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q214:16Rhamondre Stevenson 14 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)NE 14 – 0 BUF · NE 32% → 52% +20NE 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q211:56James Cook 46 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 14 – 7 BUF · BUF 46% → 66% +21BUF 46% → 66%+21 pts
- Q39:41James Cook 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 14 – 14 BUF · BUF 51% → 77% +25BUF 51% → 77%+25 pts
- Q410:10Taron Johnson fumble recovery in end zone (Tyler Bass Kick)NE 14 – 24 BUF · BUF 82% → 98% +15BUF 82% → 98%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -14.5
- ML NE +600 / BUF -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -18
- BUF 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 92.8%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -671
- NE +671 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 16.5 – 31.0 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1310 | 1739 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +20 | — | NE: Drake Maye · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +445 Elo | BUF 92.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 91.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 87.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 31.82nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 22.110th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.1 | Margin | +9.62nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.82 | Yards per play | 6.164th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5923rd of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–7 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.