Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing26/38, 281 YDS, 3 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing19 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving8 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing12/22, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Antonio GibsonRushing12 CAR, 63 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:47Cameron Dicker 35 Yd Field Goal40–7
- Q411:58J.K. Dobbins 2 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)37–7
- Q35:43Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field Goal30–7
- Q37:37Ladd McConkey 40 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–7
- Q20:02Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q21:24DeMario Douglas 36 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)17–7
- Q22:55Ladd McConkey 6 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–0
- Q210:15Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q13:21Derius Davis 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:21Derius Davis 23 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 0 NE · LAC 69% → 84% +15LAC 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q210:15Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field GoalLAC 10 – 0 NE · LAC 84% → 89% +5LAC 84% → 89%+5 pts
- Q22:55Ladd McConkey 6 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 17 – 0 NE · LAC 90% → 97% +7LAC 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q21:24DeMario Douglas 36 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Joey Slye Kick)LAC 17 – 7 NE · NE 3% → 10% +7NE 3% → 10%+7 pts
- Q20:02Cameron Dicker 38 Yd Field GoalLAC 20 – 7 NE · LAC 90% → 94% +4LAC 90% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML LAC -280 / NE +230
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 73.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -245
- NE +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 23.5 – 18.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1308 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +21 | LAC: Justin Herbert · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +174 Elo | LAC 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 71.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 17.330th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 24.124th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.6 | Margin | −6.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 4.8728th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5519th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.