Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing29/40, 263 YDS, 2 TD
- Audric EstimeRushing9 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving3 REC, 62 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing23/31, 284 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Gus EdwardsRushing14 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving6 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:57Wil Lutz 55 Yd Field Goal27–34
- Q42:27Hassan Haskins 34 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)24–34
- Q412:23Derius Davis 19 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Pass to Joshua Palmer for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q32:58Gus Edwards 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q38:31Wil Lutz 41 Yd Field Goal24–13
- Q20:00Cameron Dicker 57 Yd Field Goal21–13
- Q26:22Devaughn Vele 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)21–10
- Q28:50Cameron Dicker 37 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q212:17Michael Burton 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)14–7
- Q13:09Gus Edwards 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q17:34Audric Estime 3 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:09Gus Edwards 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)DEN 7 – 7 LAC · LAC 37% → 57% +19LAC 37% → 57%+19 pts
- Q212:17Michael Burton 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 14 – 7 LAC · DEN 44% → 64% +21DEN 44% → 64%+21 pts
- Q26:22Devaughn Vele 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 21 – 10 LAC · DEN 57% → 77% +20DEN 57% → 77%+20 pts
- Q32:58Gus Edwards 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)DEN 24 – 19 LAC · LAC 12% → 32% +20LAC 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q412:23Derius Davis 19 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Pass to Joshua Palmer for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 24 – 27 LAC · LAC 27% → 69% +42LAC 27% → 69%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML DEN +135 / LAC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- LAC 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 40.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -135
- DEN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.5 – 22.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −18 | +9 | DEN: Bo Nix · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +64 Elo | DEN 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 57.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 21.020th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.6 | Points allowed | 17.61st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.4 | Margin | +3.412th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.06 | Yards per play | 5.2418th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3714th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–2 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–0 | 8–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.