Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing17/38, 172 YDS, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing22 CAR, 107 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 58 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing20/33, 130 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- Bo NixRushing8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving3 REC, 32 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:48Courtland Sutton 20 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)13–31
- Q412:29Nik Bonitto 50 Yd Fumble Recovery (Wil Lutz Kick)13–24
- Q413:51Nate Adkins 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)13–17
- Q35:18Wil Lutz 44 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:06Matt Gay 49 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q25:29Adam Trautman 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–7
- Q214:49Matt Gay 37 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:52Anthony Richardson 23 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Anthony Richardson 23 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)IND 7 – 0 DEN · IND 35% → 53% +18IND 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q25:29Adam Trautman 13 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)IND 10 – 7 DEN · DEN 30% → 52% +22DEN 30% → 52%+22 pts
- Q35:18Wil Lutz 44 Yd Field GoalIND 13 – 10 DEN · DEN 34% → 46% +12DEN 34% → 46%+12 pts
- Q413:51Nate Adkins 15 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)IND 13 – 17 DEN · DEN 42% → 76% +34DEN 42% → 76%+34 pts
- Q412:29Nik Bonitto 50 Yd Fumble Recovery (Wil Lutz Kick)IND 13 – 24 DEN · DEN 77% → 95% +19DEN 77% → 95%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML IND +170 / DEN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -187
- IND +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.0 – 23.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | −14 | IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +185 Elo | DEN 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.5 | Points scored | 23.512th of 32 |
| 18th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 18.02nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.4 | Margin | +5.59th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.35 | Yards per play | 5.2119th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.65 | Yards allowed per play | 4.872nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.