Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing34/58, 497 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- Jerome FordRushing9 CAR, 41 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving9 REC, 235 YDS, 1 TD
Broncos- Bo NixPassing18/35, 294 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing14 CAR, 84 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving3 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:48Ja'Quan McMillian 44 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)32–41
- Q42:54Wil Lutz 27 Yd Field Goal32–34
- Q48:57Nick Chubb 5 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)32–31
- Q31:52Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field Goal25–31
- Q39:50Jerry Jeudy 70 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to Jerry Jeudy for Two-Point Conversion)25–28
- Q310:01Marvin Mims Jr. 93 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)17–28
- Q20:13David Njoku 4 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)17–21
- Q21:38Nik Bonitto 71 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)10–21
- Q24:03Michael Burton 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)10–14
- Q28:49Dustin Hopkins 45 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q11:09David Njoku 8 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–7
- Q14:13Javonte Williams 2 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:03Michael Burton 1 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)CLE 10 – 14 DEN · DEN 57% → 78% +21DEN 57% → 78%+21 pts
- Q39:50Jerry Jeudy 70 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Jameis Winston Pass to Jerry Jeudy for Two-Point Conversion)CLE 25 – 28 DEN · CLE 8% → 26% +18CLE 8% → 26%+18 pts
- Q48:57Nick Chubb 5 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 32 – 31 DEN · CLE 12% → 48% +36CLE 12% → 48%+36 pts
- Q42:54Wil Lutz 27 Yd Field GoalCLE 32 – 34 DEN · DEN 44% → 76% +32DEN 44% → 76%+32 pts
- Q41:48Ja'Quan McMillian 44 Yd Interception Return (Wil Lutz Kick)CLE 32 – 41 DEN · DEN 79% → >99% +20DEN 79% → >99%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML CLE +230 / DEN -280
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 75.9%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- DEN -248
- CLE +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.5 – 24.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | −16 | CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson · DEN: Bo Nix, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +199 Elo | DEN 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 71.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.9 | Points scored | 22.017th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 16.82nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.4 | Margin | +5.29th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.52 | Yards per play | 5.1023rd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 4.681st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.