Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing21/28, 270 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing18/27, 219 YDS, 1 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing20 CAR, 59 YDS, 2 TD
- Jerry JeudyReceiving6 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:57Nick Chubb 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–24
- Q46:15Calvin Austin III 23 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–18
- Q47:57Jaylen Warren 3 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick Good)13–18
- Q412:16Jameis Winston 2 Yd Rush (Jameis Winston Pass to David Njoku for Two-Point Conversion)6–18
- Q31:56Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:40Dustin Hopkins 34 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q24:00Nick Chubb 2 Yd Rush (Dustin Hopkins Kick Good)3–7
- Q210:53Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:00Nick Chubb 2 Yd Rush (Dustin Hopkins Kick Good)PIT 3 – 7 CLE · CLE 28% → 51% +22CLE 28% → 51%+22 pts
- Q412:16Jameis Winston 2 Yd Rush (Jameis Winston Pass to David Njoku for Two-Point Conversion)PIT 6 – 18 CLE · CLE 64% → 93% +29CLE 64% → 93%+29 pts
- Q47:57Jaylen Warren 3 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick Good)PIT 13 – 18 CLE · PIT 3% → 24% +21PIT 3% → 24%+21 pts
- Q46:15Calvin Austin III 23 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PIT 19 – 18 CLE · PIT 20% → 63% +43PIT 20% → 63%+43 pts
- Q40:57Nick Chubb 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PIT 19 – 24 CLE · CLE 29% → >99% +70CLE 29% → >99%+70 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3.5
- ML PIT -210 / CLE +175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -9.5
- PIT 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 79.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -197
- CLE +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.0 – 16.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1609 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +37 | +2 | PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett · CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +239 Elo | PIT 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 74.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 66.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 16.231st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.2 | Points allowed | 24.824th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+7.1 | Margin | −8.627th of 32 |
| 24th of 324.95 | Yards per play | 4.4432nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7627th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.