Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing28/36, 346 YDS, 2 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing18 CAR, 63 YDS
- Quentin JohnstonReceiving13 REC, 186 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing24/34, 214 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing6 CAR, 20 YDS
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:25Brock Bowers 12 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)34–20
- Q43:38Hassan Haskins 2 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)34–13
- Q413:32Will Dissly 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–13
- Q32:15Daniel Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal20–13
- Q37:10Cameron Dicker 20 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q20:10DJ Chark Jr. 6 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Pass to Ladd McConkey for Two-Point Conversion)17–10
- Q21:05Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q25:28Cameron Dicker 32 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q213:04Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)3–10
- Q10:11Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q12:46Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:04Jakobi Meyers 25 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Daniel Carlson Kick)LAC 3 – 10 LV · LV 31% → 51% +20LV 31% → 51%+20 pts
- Q25:28Cameron Dicker 32 Yd Field GoalLAC 6 – 10 LV · LAC 45% → 55% +10LAC 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q21:05Cameron Dicker 49 Yd Field GoalLAC 9 – 10 LV · LAC 53% → 63% +10LAC 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q20:10DJ Chark Jr. 6 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Justin Herbert Pass to Ladd McConkey for Two-Point Conversion)LAC 17 – 10 LV · LAC 63% → 85% +22LAC 63% → 85%+22 pts
- Q413:32Will Dissly 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 27 – 13 LV · LAC 89% → 98% +10LAC 89% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML LAC -300 / LV +250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 73.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -263
- LV +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 24.0 – 17.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1335 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +15 | LAC: Justin Herbert · LV: Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +175 Elo | LAC 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 72.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 18.129th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.6 | Points allowed | 25.025th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.4 | Margin | −6.926th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 4.8129th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2913th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–4 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 LV in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.