Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tyler HuntleyPassing25/41, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing11 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonnu SmithReceiving9 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
Jets- Aaron RodgersPassing23/36, 274 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Breece HallRushing12 CAR, 57 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving6 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:30Breece Hall 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Joseph Kick)20–32
- Q45:21Jonnu Smith 4 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)20–25
- Q410:24Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Joseph Kick)13–25
- Q414:12De'Von Achane 15 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)13–18
- Q36:35Greg Joseph 20 Yd Field Goal6–18
- Q20:59Allen Lazard 13 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–15
- Q27:57Tyler Conklin 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Joseph Kick)6–7
- Q10:00Jason Sanders 28 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q111:46Jason Sanders 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:57Tyler Conklin 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Joseph Kick)MIA 6 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 35% → 57% +22NYJ 35% → 57%+22 pts
- Q20:59Allen Lazard 13 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Breece Hall Run for Two-Point Conversion)MIA 6 – 15 NYJ · NYJ 57% → 81% +24NYJ 57% → 81%+24 pts
- Q414:12De'Von Achane 15 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 13 – 18 NYJ · MIA 5% → 24% +19MIA 5% → 24%+19 pts
- Q410:24Davante Adams 4 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Greg Joseph Kick)MIA 13 – 25 NYJ · NYJ 79% → 97% +18NYJ 79% → 97%+18 pts
- Q45:21Jonnu Smith 4 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 20 – 25 NYJ · MIA <1% → 14% +13MIA <1% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -2.5
- ML MIA +115 / NYJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- NYJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NYJ: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -121
- MIA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 18.5 – 21.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −99 | +16 | MIA: Tyler Huntley, usually Tua Tagovailoa · NYJ: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +16 Elo | MIA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 54.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 19.125th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 24.020th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −4.924th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.13 | Yards per play | 5.1720th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 5.003rd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 NYJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.