Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tyler HuntleyPassing22/26, 225 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler HuntleyRushing7 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyreek HillReceiving9 REC, 105 YDS
Browns- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonPassing24/47, 170 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Onta ForemanRushing13 CAR, 49 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving12 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:38Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)20–3
- Q311:04Tyler Huntley 13 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)13–3
- Q20:00Jason Sanders 39 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q213:26Dustin Hopkins 25 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q15:46Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:46Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 0 CLE · MIA 61% → 69% +8MIA 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q213:26Dustin Hopkins 25 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 3 CLE · CLE 31% → 40% +8CLE 31% → 40%+8 pts
- Q20:00Jason Sanders 39 Yd Field GoalMIA 6 – 3 CLE · MIA 59% → 69% +10MIA 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q311:04Tyler Huntley 13 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 13 – 3 CLE · MIA 69% → 88% +19MIA 69% → 88%+19 pts
- Q43:38Jonnu Smith 7 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 20 – 3 CLE · MIA >99% → >99% +0MIA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dolphins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML MIA -185 / CLE +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -164
- CLE +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 18.0 – 14.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 32.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1361 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −118 | −62 | MIA: Tyler Huntley, usually Tua Tagovailoa · CLE: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +62 Elo | MIA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 62.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 16.331st of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.9 | Points allowed | 25.327th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.6 | Margin | −9.031st of 32 |
| 21st of 325.14 | Yards per play | 4.6731st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5723rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.