Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Dorian Thompson-RobinsonPassing20/34, 157 YDS, 2 INT
- Jerome FordRushing11 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- David NjokuReceiving8 REC, 66 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing23/30, 252 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing18 CAR, 91 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:44Ja'Marr Chase 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)6–24
- Q35:50Jerome Ford 4 Yd Rush (Dustin Hopkins PAT Failed)6–17
- Q20:00Cade York 59 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q27:32Andrei Iosivas 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)0–14
- Q17:14Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:14Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CLE 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 79% → 90% +11CIN 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q27:32Andrei Iosivas 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CLE 0 – 14 CIN · CIN 89% → 96% +7CIN 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q20:00Cade York 59 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 17 CIN · CIN 97% → 98% +1CIN 97% → 98%+1 pts
- Q35:50Jerome Ford 4 Yd Rush (Dustin Hopkins PAT Failed)CLE 6 – 17 CIN · CLE <1% → 5% +4CLE <1% → 5%+4 pts
- Q41:44Ja'Marr Chase 32 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CLE 6 – 24 CIN · CIN >99% → >99% +0CIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -10.5
- ML CLE +400 / CIN -600
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -9
- CIN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 79.1%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -425
- CLE +425 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 18.0 – 28.5 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1375 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −60 | +12 | CLE: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, usually Deshaun Watson · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +231 Elo | CIN 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 79.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 80.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.1 | Points scored | 28.55th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.4 | Points allowed | 27.631st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.4 | Margin | +0.914th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.69 | Yards per play | 5.848th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6525th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 1–525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–9 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.