Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing19/38, 159 YDS, 2 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing13 CAR, 45 YDS
- Xavier WorthyReceiving6 REC, 46 YDS
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing16/25, 146 YDS, 3 INT
- Jerome FordRushing7 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- Jerry JeudyReceiving11 REC, 108 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q33:16Jerome Ford 62 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)21–7
- Q312:59Xavier Worthy 21 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)21–0
- Q24:46Noah Gray 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (Harrison Butker Kick)14–0
- Q112:12JuJu Smith-Schuster 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:12JuJu Smith-Schuster 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 CLE · KC 68% → 82% +14KC 68% → 82%+14 pts
- Q24:46Noah Gray 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick) (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 0 CLE · KC 83% → 94% +11KC 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q312:59Xavier Worthy 21 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 21 – 0 CLE · KC 95% → 99% +4KC 95% → 99%+4 pts
- Q33:16Jerome Ford 62 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)KC 21 – 7 CLE · CLE <1% → 3% +3CLE <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -225 / CLE +190
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -11.5
- KC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.8 pts
- KC: Elo 83.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -215
- CLE +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.5 – 19.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +15 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +282 Elo | KC 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 81.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 68.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 17.829th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 25.826th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+4.3 | Margin | −7.928th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.14 | Yards per play | 4.7130th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6826th of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | — | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.