Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Jameis WinstonPassing24/41, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Nick ChubbRushing11 CAR, 48 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing15/26, 158 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing16 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:19David Njoku 15 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)14–27
- Q33:51Pat Freiermuth 20 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–27
- Q38:37Van Jefferson 10 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–20
- Q24:21Chris Boswell 54 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q211:00Najee Harris 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–10
- Q15:50Jerry Jeudy 35 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–3
- Q19:32Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:32Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 72% → 78% +6PIT 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q15:50Jerry Jeudy 35 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 7 – 3 PIT · CLE 23% → 39% +17CLE 23% → 39%+17 pts
- Q211:00Najee Harris 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 7 – 10 PIT · PIT 58% → 76% +19PIT 58% → 76%+19 pts
- Q24:21Chris Boswell 54 Yd Field GoalCLE 7 – 13 PIT · PIT 76% → 83% +7PIT 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q38:37Van Jefferson 10 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)CLE 7 – 20 PIT · PIT 84% → 95% +12PIT 84% → 95%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -6.5
- ML CLE +240 / PIT -290
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -10.5
- PIT 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 81.4%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -263
- CLE +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 18.0 – 24.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | +48 | CLE: Jameis Winston, usually Deshaun Watson · PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +257 Elo | PIT 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 78.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 72.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3218.2 | Points scored | 24.710th of 32 |
| 26th of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 18.76th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.5 | Margin | +6.07th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.74 | Yards per play | 5.2519th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3513th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.