Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing26/37, 271 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Chase BrownRushing25 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving9 REC, 94 YDS
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing21/26, 209 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing17 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyjae SpearsReceiving6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Josh Whyle 13 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph37–27
- Q41:09Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Cade York PAT Failed)37–21
- Q46:50Tyjae Spears 17 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Nick Folk Kick)31–21
- Q37:24Geno Stone 39 Yd Interception Return (Cade York Kick)31–14
- Q20:02Cade York 21 Yd Field Goal24–14
- Q21:12Tee Higgins 38 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)21–14
- Q25:13Sam Hubbard 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)14–14
- Q13:58Tyjae Spears 1 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)7–14
- Q16:36Chase Brown 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)7–7
- Q110:52Tony Pollard 3 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:52Tony Pollard 3 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 31% → 49% +17TEN 31% → 49%+17 pts
- Q16:36Chase Brown 6 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 7 – 7 TEN · CIN 50% → 68% +18CIN 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q13:58Tyjae Spears 1 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)CIN 7 – 14 TEN · TEN 33% → 51% +19TEN 33% → 51%+19 pts
- Q25:13Sam Hubbard 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 14 – 14 TEN · CIN 42% → 65% +23CIN 42% → 65%+23 pts
- Q21:12Tee Higgins 38 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 21 – 14 TEN · CIN 64% → 83% +19CIN 64% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -6.5
- ML CIN -260 / TEN +215
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -4.5
- CIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 65.8%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -225
- TEN +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 26.5 – 20.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +12 | CIN: Joe Burrow · TEN: Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +114 Elo | CIN 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 66.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 69.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 17.530th of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.7 | Points allowed | 26.327th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −8.830th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.84 | Yards per play | 4.8927th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.64 | Yards allowed per play | 4.954th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 2–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–1 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.