Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing14/23, 114 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing7 CAR, 55 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving4 REC, 40 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing22/29, 272 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing18 CAR, 71 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving6 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:23Spencer Shrader 48 Yd Field Goal8–33
- Q46:21De'Von Achane 11 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Tua Tagovailoa Pass to Julian Hill for Two-Point Conversion)8–30
- Q410:14Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–30
- Q37:30Spencer Shrader 28 Yd Field Goal0–23
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 35 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q212:01Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–17
- Q214:54Michael Pittman Jr. 27 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–10
- Q110:37Spencer Shrader 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Spencer Shrader 24 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 3 IND · IND 51% → 59% +8IND 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q214:54Michael Pittman Jr. 27 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)MIA 0 – 10 IND · IND 59% → 77% +18IND 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q212:01Daniel Jones 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)MIA 0 – 17 IND · IND 78% → 90% +12IND 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q20:00Spencer Shrader 35 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 20 IND · IND 94% → 96% +3IND 94% → 96%+3 pts
- Q37:30Spencer Shrader 28 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 23 IND · IND 98% → >99% +1IND 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML MIA +100 / IND -120
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 36%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- IND 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.2 pts
- IND: Elo 36.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 23.0 – 24.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | −43 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · IND: Daniel Jones, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +100 Elo | MIA 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 64.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 50.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 22.217th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 25.124th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −2.921st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.4714th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5222nd of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 148228th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Elo rating | 143823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.