Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing26/38, 330 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing32 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving6 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Drew LockPassing17/23, 309 YDS, 4 TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing20 CAR, 59 YDS
- Malik NabersReceiving7 REC, 171 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:20Graham Gano 30 Yd Field Goal33–45
- Q42:57Drew Lock 5 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)33–42
- Q46:38Michael Pittman Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)33–35
- Q48:39Malik Nabers 59 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)26–35
- Q410:53Alec Pierce 13 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–28
- Q311:03Jonathan Taylor 26 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)20–28
- Q314:48Ihmir Smith-Marsette 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Graham Gano Kick)13–28
- Q20:20Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)13–21
- Q25:55Wan'Dale Robinson 5 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)6–21
- Q29:26Matt Gay 29 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q211:32Darius Slayton 32 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)3–14
- Q11:05Malik Nabers 31 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)3–7
- Q13:45Matt Gay 32 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:03Jonathan Taylor 26 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)IND 20 – 28 NYG · IND 16% → 38% +21IND 16% → 38%+21 pts
- Q410:53Alec Pierce 13 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)IND 26 – 28 NYG · IND 19% → 50% +31IND 19% → 50%+31 pts
- Q48:39Malik Nabers 59 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Graham Gano Kick)IND 26 – 35 NYG · NYG 53% → 89% +36NYG 53% → 89%+36 pts
- Q46:38Michael Pittman Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)IND 33 – 35 NYG · IND 7% → 44% +37IND 7% → 44%+37 pts
- Q42:57Drew Lock 5 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)IND 33 – 42 NYG · NYG 66% → >99% +33NYG 66% → >99%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- IND -7.5
- ML IND -380 / NYG +290
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7
- IND 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- IND: Elo 73.8%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -307
- NYG +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 24.0 – 16.5 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1250 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | −16 | IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · NYG: Drew Lock, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +180 Elo | IND 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 74.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 75.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.2 | Points scored | 14.332nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3223.9 | Points allowed | 24.124th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−2.7 | Margin | −9.831st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.41 | Yards per play | 4.5931st of 32 |
| 18th of 325.48 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6626th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 0–1031st of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 0–832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.