Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Mason RudolphPassing23/34, 252 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Tony PollardRushing8 CAR, 35 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving9 REC, 81 YDS
Colts- Anthony Richardson Sr.Passing7/11, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing29 CAR, 218 YDS, 3 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:53Tyjae Spears 2 Yd Rush (Mason Rudolph Pass to Chig Okonkwo for Two-Point Conversion)30–38
- Q48:13Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Brayden Narveson Kick)22–38
- Q32:57Tyjae Spears 11 Yd Rush (Tony Pollard Run for Two-Point Conversion)15–38
- Q36:50Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–38
- Q314:42Jonathan Taylor 70 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–31
- Q20:15Josh Downs 27 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)7–24
- Q22:09Matt Gay 31 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q27:25Jonathan Taylor 65 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–14
- Q211:01Anthony Richardson 5 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
- Q17:47Calvin Ridley 38 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Brayden Narveson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:47Calvin Ridley 38 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Brayden Narveson Kick)TEN 7 – 0 IND · TEN 37% → 55% +18TEN 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q211:01Anthony Richardson 5 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)TEN 7 – 7 IND · IND 41% → 62% +21IND 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q27:25Jonathan Taylor 65 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)TEN 7 – 14 IND · IND 61% → 80% +19IND 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q22:09Matt Gay 31 Yd Field GoalTEN 7 – 17 IND · IND 81% → 87% +6IND 81% → 87%+6 pts
- Q20:15Josh Downs 27 Yd pass from Anthony Richardson (Matt Gay Kick)TEN 7 – 24 IND · IND 87% → 96% +9IND 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML TEN +165 / IND -195
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- IND: Elo 67.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -178
- TEN +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 19.5 – 24.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1309 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | −6 | TEN: Mason Rudolph, usually Will Levis · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +129 Elo | IND 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 64.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.1 | Points scored | 20.023rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.1 | Points allowed | 23.522nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−8.9 | Margin | −3.523rd of 32 |
| 26th of 324.95 | Yards per play | 5.2618th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.01 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4917th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–11 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 0–3 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.