Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Mac JonesPassing20/32, 225 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing14 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving7 REC, 103 YDS
Colts- Joe FlaccoPassing23/40, 264 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing34 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving10 REC, 94 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:23Matt Gay 38 Yd Field Goal23–26
- Q41:44Cam Little 53 Yd Field Goal23–23
- Q43:52Matt Gay 45 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q47:50Parker Washington 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)20–20
- Q20:13Matt Gay 36 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q21:25Cam Little 28 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q23:22Matt Gay 49 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q29:32Jonathan Taylor 6 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)10–14
- Q214:17Cam Little 53 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q18:12Tank Bigsby 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–7
- Q113:50Alec Pierce 40 Yd pass from Joe Flacco (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:32Jonathan Taylor 6 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)JAX 10 – 14 IND · IND 50% → 71% +21IND 50% → 71%+21 pts
- Q47:50Parker Washington 9 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Cam Little Kick)JAX 20 – 20 IND · JAX 9% → 46% +36JAX 9% → 46%+36 pts
- Q43:52Matt Gay 45 Yd Field GoalJAX 20 – 23 IND · IND 53% → 79% +26IND 53% → 79%+26 pts
- Q41:44Cam Little 53 Yd Field GoalJAX 23 – 23 IND · JAX 12% → 48% +36JAX 12% → 48%+36 pts
- OT5:23Matt Gay 38 Yd Field GoalJAX 23 – 26 IND · IND 54% → 76% +23IND 54% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML JAX +150 / IND -175
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- IND: Elo 64.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -161
- JAX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.0 – 24.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −50 | +7 | JAX: Mac Jones, usually Trevor Lawrence · IND: Joe Flacco, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +104 Elo | IND 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 65.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 61.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3218.6 | Points scored | 21.916th of 32 |
| 28th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 25.326th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.0 | Margin | −3.322nd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 5.4613th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5823rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 3–0 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.