Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing18/35, 154 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing16 CAR, 57 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing19/31, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 143 YDS
- Brenton StrangeReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:57Cam Little 28 Yd Field Goal10–26
- Q44:47Chuba Hubbard 27 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)10–23
- Q47:09Cam Little 36 Yd Field Goal3–23
- Q20:01Cam Little 47 Yd Field Goal3–20
- Q21:49Brian Thomas Jr. 9 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)3–17
- Q28:32Hunter Long 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)3–10
- Q10:36Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:15Cam Little 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:15Cam Little 35 Yd Field GoalCAR 0 – 3 JAX · JAX 64% → 71% +7JAX 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q10:36Ryan Fitzgerald 48 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 3 JAX · CAR 29% → 37% +8CAR 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q28:32Hunter Long 6 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)CAR 3 – 10 JAX · JAX 62% → 80% +18JAX 62% → 80%+18 pts
- Q21:49Brian Thomas Jr. 9 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)CAR 3 – 17 JAX · JAX 81% → 93% +12JAX 81% → 93%+12 pts
- Q20:01Cam Little 47 Yd Field GoalCAR 3 – 20 JAX · JAX 94% → 96% +3JAX 94% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -4.5
- ML CAR +175 / JAX -210
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -3.5
- JAX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- JAX: Elo 63.1%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- JAX -185
- CAR +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 20.0 – 24.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +22 | CAR: Bryce Young · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +93 Elo | JAX 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 64.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 64.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.1 | Points scored | 18.826th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3231.4 | Points allowed | 25.627th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.4 | Margin | −6.825th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.96 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8931st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 20th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 32 |
| 30th of 321377 | Elo rating | 141626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CAR |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–3 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.