Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing16/23, 139 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing18 CAR, 47 YDS
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving3 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing28/37, 268 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Drake MayeRushing7 CAR, 45 YDS
- Hunter HenryReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:16Calvin Austin III 17 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)21–14
- Q414:56Hunter Henry 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)14–14
- Q29:01Hunter Henry 5 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)14–7
- Q213:49DK Metcalf 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)14–0
- Q18:25Kenneth Gainwell 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25Kenneth Gainwell 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 0 NE · PIT 50% → 68% +18PIT 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q213:49DK Metcalf 12 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 14 – 0 NE · PIT 70% → 85% +15PIT 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q29:01Hunter Henry 5 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)PIT 14 – 7 NE · NE 14% → 29% +15NE 14% → 29%+15 pts
- Q414:56Hunter Henry 16 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)PIT 14 – 14 NE · NE 19% → 50% +31NE 19% → 50%+31 pts
- Q42:16Calvin Austin III 17 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 21 – 14 NE · PIT 50% → 99% +49PIT 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -1.5
- ML PIT -110 / NE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -0.5
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- NE +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 23.0 – 21.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | +17 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 17.030th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 24.522nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.9 | Margin | −7.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.02 | Yards per play | 4.8329th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4619th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 7th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 32 |
| 21st of 321467 | Elo rating | 140525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | — |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 0–1 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.