Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing22/30, 244 YDS, 4 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing11 CAR, 37 YDS
- DK MetcalfReceiving4 REC, 83 YDS
Jets- Justin FieldsPassing16/22, 218 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallRushing19 CAR, 107 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:03Chris Boswell 60 Yd Field Goal34–32
- Q47:01Justin Fields 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–32
- Q414:07Calvin Austin III 18 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)31–26
- Q414:57Jaylen Warren 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)24–26
- Q33:46Justin Fields 2 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)17–26
- Q20:32Jonnu Smith 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)17–19
- Q22:54Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q210:03Braelon Allen 8 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)10–16
- Q213:26Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q10:25Garrett Wilson 33 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)7–9
- Q13:38Ben Skowronek 22 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–3
- Q19:15Nick Folk 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:46Justin Fields 2 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick)PIT 17 – 26 NYJ · NYJ 54% → 81% +27NYJ 54% → 81%+27 pts
- Q414:57Jaylen Warren 5 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 24 – 26 NYJ · PIT 15% → 45% +29PIT 15% → 45%+29 pts
- Q414:07Calvin Austin III 18 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 31 – 26 NYJ · PIT 44% → 78% +33PIT 44% → 78%+33 pts
- Q47:01Justin Fields 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)PIT 31 – 32 NYJ · NYJ 16% → 54% +38NYJ 16% → 54%+38 pts
- Q41:03Chris Boswell 60 Yd Field GoalPIT 34 – 32 NYJ · PIT 33% → 84% +51PIT 33% → 84%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -2.5
- ML PIT -165 / NYJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- NYJ +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 20.5 – 18.0 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | +16 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson · NYJ: Justin Fields, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 51.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 19.924th of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 23.820th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.9 | Margin | −3.924th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.02 | Yards per play | 5.2220th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 4.993rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 32 |
| 17th of 321494 | Elo rating | 144021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 NYJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.