Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing22/33, 217 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing12 CAR, 48 YDS
- Calvin Austin IIIReceiving4 REC, 65 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing15/23, 207 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 162 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 100 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:10Justin Tucker 23 Yd Field Goal17–34
- Q413:06Marlon Humphrey 37 Yd Interception Return (Justin Tucker Kick)17–31
- Q31:50Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)17–24
- Q35:14Cordarrelle Patterson 12 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)17–17
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 51 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q21:43Justin Tucker 51 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q27:28Rashod Bateman 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)7–14
- Q214:56MyCole Pruitt 1 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–7
- Q15:52Isaiah Likely 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:52Isaiah Likely 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 70% → 84% +14BAL 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q214:56MyCole Pruitt 1 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 7 BAL · PIT 16% → 31% +15PIT 16% → 31%+15 pts
- Q27:28Rashod Bateman 14 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 7 – 14 BAL · BAL 67% → 84% +17BAL 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q35:14Cordarrelle Patterson 12 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 17 – 17 BAL · PIT 14% → 37% +23PIT 14% → 37%+23 pts
- Q31:50Mark Andrews 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 17 – 24 BAL · BAL 62% → 87% +25BAL 62% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML PIT +250 / BAL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -3.5
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.2%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -253
- PIT +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 19.0 – 26.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +44 | +5 | PIT: Russell Wilson, usually Kenny Pickett · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +86 Elo | BAL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 64.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 71.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 29.93rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.9 | Points allowed | 23.722nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+5.1 | Margin | +6.16th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.12 | Yards per play | 6.861st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.26 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3213th of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–0 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.