Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing29/38, 320 YDS, 3 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing9 CAR, 20 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving8 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing23/37, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- Najee HarrisRushing13 CAR, 74 YDS
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving7 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:38Travis Kelce 12 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)29–10
- Q414:56Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–10
- Q35:45Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field Goal16–10
- Q312:21Harrison Butker 32 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q210:28Russell Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)13–7
- Q14:00Justin Watson 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)13–0
- Q19:19Xavier Worthy 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:19Xavier Worthy 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker PAT Failed)KC 6 – 0 PIT · KC 64% → 77% +14KC 64% → 77%+14 pts
- Q14:00Justin Watson 11 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 13 – 0 PIT · KC 77% → 89% +12KC 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q210:28Russell Wilson 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)KC 13 – 7 PIT · PIT 10% → 22% +13PIT 10% → 22%+13 pts
- Q35:45Chris Boswell 36 Yd Field GoalKC 16 – 10 PIT · PIT 12% → 20% +8PIT 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q414:56Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)KC 22 – 10 PIT · KC 83% → 95% +13KC 83% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4.5
- KC 66%
- Fair odds
- KC -180
- PIT +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.8 – 18.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1736 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +3 | +43 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · PIT: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +115 Elo | KC 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 23.512th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.5 | Points allowed | 19.97th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.2 | Margin | +3.611th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.08 | Yards per play | 5.1321st of 32 |
| 8th of 325.23 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3612th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | — | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.