Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing37/46, 277 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Khalil HerbertRushing20 CAR, 69 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing17/31, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing12 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- Pat FreiermuthReceiving8 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:39Chris Boswell 54 Yd Field Goal19–17
- Q48:07Pat Freiermuth 19 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)19–14
- Q411:02Cade York 23 Yd Field Goal19–7
- Q36:56Cade York 35 Yd Field Goal16–7
- Q20:16Cade York 27 Yd Field Goal13–7
- Q29:54Najee Harris 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)10–7
- Q11:24Cade York 48 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q19:49Ja'Marr Chase 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Ja'Marr Chase 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)CIN 7 – 0 PIT · CIN 55% → 72% +17CIN 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q29:54Najee Harris 1 Yd Rush (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 10 – 7 PIT · PIT 19% → 37% +18PIT 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q20:16Cade York 27 Yd Field GoalCIN 13 – 7 PIT · CIN 64% → 73% +9CIN 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q48:07Pat Freiermuth 19 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)CIN 19 – 14 PIT · PIT 2% → 18% +17PIT 2% → 18%+17 pts
- Q42:39Chris Boswell 54 Yd Field GoalCIN 19 – 17 PIT · PIT 6% → 27% +20PIT 6% → 27%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -2.5
- ML CIN -140 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -1.5
- CIN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 44.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 25.5 – 23.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +35 | CIN: Joe Burrow · PIT: Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 22.714th of 32 |
| 29th of 3226.1 | Points allowed | 20.57th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +2.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.85 | Yards per play | 5.1223rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4417th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 0–3 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.