Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing24/31, 219 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing10 CAR, 69 YDS
- Marvin Mims Jr.Receiving8 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing39/49, 412 YDS, 3 TD
- Chase BrownRushing20 CAR, 67 YDS
- Tee HigginsReceiving11 REC, 131 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- OT1:07Tee Higgins 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow24–30
- Q40:08Marvin Mims Jr. 25 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)24–24
- Q41:29Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Cade York Kick)17–24
- Q48:48Marvin Mims Jr. 51 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)17–17
- Q411:33Tee Higgins 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)10–17
- Q33:10Courtland Sutton 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–10
- Q39:07Cade York 22 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:49Tee Higgins 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)3–7
- Q19:45Wil Lutz 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:33Tee Higgins 12 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)DEN 10 – 17 CIN · CIN 54% → 87% +32CIN 54% → 87%+32 pts
- Q48:48Marvin Mims Jr. 51 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 17 – 17 CIN · DEN 11% → 46% +36DEN 11% → 46%+36 pts
- Q41:29Joe Burrow 1 Yd Rush (Cade York Kick)DEN 17 – 24 CIN · CIN 52% → >99% +48CIN 52% → >99%+48 pts
- Q40:08Marvin Mims Jr. 25 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 24 – 24 CIN · DEN 0% → 50% +50DEN 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:07Tee Higgins 3 Yd pass from Joe BurrowDEN 24 – 30 CIN · CIN 51% → >99% +48CIN 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML DEN +145 / CIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 46.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -148
- DEN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 23.5 – 27.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −12 | +12 | DEN: Bo Nix · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +22 Elo | DEN 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.2 | Points scored | 28.26th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.7 | Points allowed | 26.228th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +2.013th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.10 | Yards per play | 5.848th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.91 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5721st of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 2–523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–3 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–0 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.