Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Russell WilsonPassing20/29, 270 YDS, 2 TD
- Najee HarrisRushing6 CAR, 17 YDS
- George PickensReceiving5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/21, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing26 CAR, 186 YDS, 2 TD
- Isaiah LikelyReceiving3 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q33:24George Pickens 36 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)14–28
- Q35:49Derrick Henry 44 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)7–28
- Q38:05Van Jefferson 30 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)7–21
- Q20:02Justice Hill 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–21
- Q24:09Derrick Henry 8 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)0–14
- Q14:45Rashod Bateman 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:45Rashod Bateman 15 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 77% → 89% +12BAL 77% → 89%+12 pts
- Q24:09Derrick Henry 8 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 0 – 14 BAL · BAL 88% → 96% +8BAL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q20:02Justice Hill 5 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 0 – 21 BAL · BAL 97% → >99% +3BAL 97% → >99%+3 pts
- Q38:05Van Jefferson 30 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Chris Boswell Kick)PIT 7 – 21 BAL · PIT <1% → 3% +2PIT <1% → 3%+2 pts
- Q35:49Derrick Henry 44 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)PIT 7 – 28 BAL · BAL 98% → >99% +2BAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -9.5
- ML PIT +360 / BAL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -9
- BAL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 78.2%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -382
- PIT +382 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 17.5 – 27.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | +4 | PIT: Russell Wilson · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +222 Elo | BAL 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 78.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 79.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 30.53rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 21.29th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.9 | Margin | +9.23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.02 | Yards per play | 6.851st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.196th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.