Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Bailey ZappePassing16/31, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- D'Onta ForemanRushing10 CAR, 27 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving6 REC, 63 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing16/32, 217 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing20 CAR, 138 YDS, 2 TD
- Rashod BatemanReceiving5 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:04Derrick Henry 43 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)10–35
- Q46:44Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)10–28
- Q411:33Jordan Akins 16 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Dustin Hopkins Kick)10–21
- Q310:42Rashod Bateman 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)3–21
- Q26:33Dustin Hopkins 23 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q211:03Mark Andrews 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–14
- Q18:32Nate Wiggins 26 Yd Interception Return (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:32Nate Wiggins 26 Yd Interception Return (Justin Tucker Kick)CLE 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 91% → 96% +6BAL 91% → 96%+6 pts
- Q211:03Mark Andrews 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CLE 0 – 14 BAL · BAL 96% → 99% +3BAL 96% → 99%+3 pts
- Q26:33Dustin Hopkins 23 Yd Field GoalCLE 3 – 14 BAL · CLE 1% → 2% +1CLE 1% → 2%+1 pts
- Q310:42Rashod Bateman 7 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)CLE 3 – 21 BAL · BAL 98% → >99% +2BAL 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q411:33Jordan Akins 16 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 10 – 21 BAL · CLE <1% → 1% +1CLE <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- BAL -20.5
- ML CLE +1100 / BAL -2500
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 92%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -18
- BAL 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 93.0%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -1167
- CLE +1167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 10.5 – 31.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1714 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −28 | +4 | CLE: Bailey Zappe, usually Deshaun Watson · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +450 Elo | BAL 93.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 87.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 92.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 92.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3215.5 | Points scored | 30.23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 21.913th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−9.5 | Margin | +8.34th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.59 | Yards per play | 6.871st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2410th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–7 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–11 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.