Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing10/15, 168 YDS, 2 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing27 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
- Mark AndrewsReceiving2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing17/31, 185 YDS, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing9 CAR, 26 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving3 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q35:50Mark Andrews 1 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)31–2
- Q313:22Lamar Jackson 48 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)24–2
- Q21:51Isaiah Likely 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)17–2
- Q210:09Derrick Henry tackled in end zone by Kamari Lassiter for a Safety10–2
- Q12:47Justin Tucker 52 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q110:08Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:08Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 7 – 0 HOU · BAL 65% → 80% +15BAL 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q12:47Justin Tucker 52 Yd Field GoalBAL 10 – 0 HOU · BAL 80% → 85% +5BAL 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q210:09Derrick Henry tackled in end zone by Kamari Lassiter for a SafetyBAL 10 – 2 HOU · HOU 14% → 18% +4HOU 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q21:51Isaiah Likely 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 17 – 2 HOU · BAL 84% → 94% +11BAL 84% → 94%+11 pts
- Q313:22Lamar Jackson 48 Yd Rush (Justin Tucker Kick)BAL 24 – 2 HOU · BAL 95% → 99% +4BAL 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -5
- BAL 67%
- Fair odds
- BAL -187
- HOU +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 26.4 – 22.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1687 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +5 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +121 Elo | BAL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 65.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3230.1 | Points scored | 23.112th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.3 | Points allowed | 21.89th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.9 | Margin | +1.314th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.86 | Yards per play | 5.1322nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 4.964th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | — | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3 | 4–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.