Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing22/33, 295 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing13 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 103 YDS
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing18/33, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 48 YDS
- Jaylen WarrenReceiving4 REC, 86 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:41Kenneth Walker III 19 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)31–17
- Q47:49Chris Boswell 45 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q412:46George Holani Recovered Kickoff in End Zone for a Touchdown (Jason Myers Kick)24–14
- Q412:46Jason Myers 54 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q36:10AJ Barner 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)14–14
- Q21:09DK Metcalf 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Darnell Washington for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q12:13Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q14:47Chris Boswell 48 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:29Tory Horton 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:29Tory Horton 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 PIT · SEA 37% → 55% +18SEA 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q21:09DK Metcalf 2 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Pass to Darnell Washington for Two-Point Conversion)SEA 7 – 14 PIT · PIT 57% → 81% +24PIT 57% → 81%+24 pts
- Q36:10AJ Barner 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 14 PIT · SEA 17% → 42% +25SEA 17% → 42%+25 pts
- Q412:46Jason Myers 54 Yd Field GoalSEA 17 – 14 PIT · SEA 43% → 60% +16SEA 43% → 60%+16 pts
- Q412:46George Holani Recovered Kickoff in End Zone for a Touchdown (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 24 – 14 PIT · SEA 60% → 88% +29SEA 60% → 88%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -3.5
- ML SEA +170 / PIT -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -2.5
- PIT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 59.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -177
- SEA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 18.5 – 22.0 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −22 | +5 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · PIT: Aaron Rodgers, usually Russell Wilson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +64 Elo | PIT 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 22.416th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 20.48th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.913th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.48 | Yards per play | 5.0226th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.31 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3714th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–1 | Road vs home | 5–311th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Elo rating | 150815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.