Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing22/35, 246 YDS, 3 TD
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing18 CAR, 67 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving10 REC, 144 YDS, 2 TD
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing31/43, 314 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing8 CAR, 31 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:51Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)27–24
- Q44:21AJ Barner 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)20–24
- Q36:25Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q310:37Jason Myers 43 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q20:20Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)17–14
- Q23:33Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q25:50Justin Jefferson 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)14–7
- Q213:35DK Metcalf 25 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q18:06Jordan Addison 5 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:35DK Metcalf 25 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)MIN 7 – 7 SEA · SEA 25% → 44% +19SEA 25% → 44%+19 pts
- Q25:50Justin Jefferson 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 7 SEA · MIN 55% → 76% +21MIN 55% → 76%+21 pts
- Q20:20Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)MIN 17 – 14 SEA · SEA 16% → 35% +19SEA 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q44:21AJ Barner 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Myers Kick)MIN 20 – 24 SEA · SEA 23% → 81% +59SEA 23% → 81%+59 pts
- Q43:51Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 27 – 24 SEA · MIN 17% → 78% +61MIN 17% → 78%+61 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -140 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4.5
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -132
- SEA +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 23.0 – 20.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1664 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +12 | +4 | MIN: Sam Darnold · SEA: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +111 Elo | MIN 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 22.515th of 32 |
| 1st of 3218.0 | Points allowed | 22.413th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+8.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.69 | Yards per play | 5.4114th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4316th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 3rd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 3–521st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.