Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing18/31, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing19 CAR, 79 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing24/40, 231 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing18 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:12Will Reichard 46 Yd Field Goal12–30
- Q45:19Keenan Allen 16 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–27
- Q410:14Cam Akers 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)6–27
- Q413:00Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal6–20
- Q31:38Aaron Jones 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)3–20
- Q37:02Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:04Will Reichard 31 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q15:04Justin Jefferson 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)0–10
- Q112:04Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:04Will Reichard 52 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 74% → 80% +6MIN 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q15:04Justin Jefferson 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)CHI 0 – 10 MIN · MIN 79% → 90% +11MIN 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q20:04Will Reichard 31 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 13 MIN · MIN 91% → 95% +4MIN 91% → 95%+4 pts
- Q37:02Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field GoalCHI 3 – 13 MIN · CHI 4% → 8% +4CHI 4% → 8%+4 pts
- Q31:38Aaron Jones 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)CHI 3 – 20 MIN · MIN 94% → >99% +5MIN 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML CHI +260 / MIN -320
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12
- MIN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 84.8%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -289
- CHI +289 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 18.5 – 25.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −9 | +12 | CHI: Caleb Williams · MIN: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +299 Elo | MIN 84.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 81.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3219.5 | Points scored | 26.19th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 18.54th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.8 | Margin | +7.64th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.53 | Yards per play | 5.7910th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2810th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–6 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.