San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing26/35, 277 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing22 CAR, 69 YDS
- Ricky PearsallReceiving4 REC, 108 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing16/23, 150 YDS
- Zach CharbonnetRushing12 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving9 REC, 124 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:34Jake Tonges 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)17–13
- Q43:24Jason Myers 37 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q49:42Jake Moody 32 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q20:02Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q213:38Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)7–7
- Q13:43George Kittle 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:43George Kittle 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 SEA · SF 52% → 71% +18SF 52% → 71%+18 pts
- Q213:38Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SF 7 – 7 SEA · SEA 28% → 48% +19SEA 28% → 48%+19 pts
- Q49:42Jake Moody 32 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 10 SEA · SF 33% → 51% +18SF 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q43:24Jason Myers 37 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 13 SEA · SEA 49% → 78% +29SEA 49% → 78%+29 pts
- Q41:34Jake Tonges 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 13 SEA · SF 12% → 94% +82SF 12% → 94%+82 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
49ers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SF -1.5
- ML SF -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- SF 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- SF: Elo 43.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 23.0 – 21.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | −25 | SF: Brock Purdy · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 22.118th of 32 |
| 29th of 3225.6 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.8 | Margin | +0.415th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 5.4813th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.24 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3111th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–6 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 149815th of 32 |
| 19th of 321475 | Elo rating | 153014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–11 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 3–1 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.