Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing26/34, 303 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing18 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing27/35, 377 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Isaac GuerendoRushing9 CAR, 34 YDS
- Ricky PearsallReceiving8 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:43Joshua Dobbs 7 Yd Rush (Jake Moody PAT Failed)40–34
- Q42:58Jahmyr Gibbs 30 Yd Rush (Jake Bates PAT Failed)40–28
- Q410:29Jake Bates 42 Yd Field Goal34–28
- Q30:19Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)31–28
- Q34:25Jake Bates 57 Yd Field Goal24–28
- Q37:40Deebo Samuel Sr. 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)21–28
- Q39:58Sam LaPorta 6 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Pass to Tim Patrick for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q26:13Brock Purdy 9 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)13–21
- Q210:09Jameson Williams 42 Yd pass play from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)13–14
- Q214:53Kyle Juszczyk 9 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)6–14
- Q13:42Jameson Williams 3 Yd Rush (Jake Bates PAT blocked)6–7
- Q18:37Ricky Pearsall 3 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:09Jameson Williams 42 Yd pass play from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 13 – 14 SF · DET 40% → 61% +21DET 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q26:13Brock Purdy 9 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)DET 13 – 21 SF · SF 39% → 62% +22SF 39% → 62%+22 pts
- Q39:58Sam LaPorta 6 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jared Goff Pass to Tim Patrick for Two-Point Conversion)DET 21 – 21 SF · DET 31% → 61% +30DET 31% → 61%+30 pts
- Q37:40Deebo Samuel Sr. 5 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)DET 21 – 28 SF · SF 39% → 67% +28SF 39% → 67%+28 pts
- Q30:19Amon-Ra St. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 31 – 28 SF · DET 39% → 73% +33DET 39% → 73%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -225 / SF +190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- DET: Elo 74.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -207
- SF +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 27.0 – 23.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1734 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +9 | DET: Jared Goff · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +188 Elo | DET 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.9 | Points scored | 22.114th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.9 | Points allowed | 23.320th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+12.9 | Margin | −1.219th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 6.145th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.084th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–0 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.