Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing23/32, 336 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing23 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving5 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing26/40, 334 YDS, 2 TD
- Caleb WilliamsRushing6 CAR, 34 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving9 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q36:03Cairo Santos 30 Yd Field Goal34–17
- Q312:18Sam LaPorta 21 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)34–14
- Q20:39Keenan Allen 45 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)27–14
- Q20:58Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)27–7
- Q26:31Cole Kmet 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)20–7
- Q212:49Jameson Williams 82 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)20–0
- Q10:02Jake Bates 34 Yd Field Goal13–0
- Q15:34Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)10–0
- Q19:35Jake Bates 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35Jake Bates 30 Yd Field GoalDET 3 – 0 CHI · DET 72% → 78% +6DET 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q15:34Jahmyr Gibbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)DET 10 – 0 CHI · DET 78% → 89% +12DET 78% → 89%+12 pts
- Q212:49Jameson Williams 82 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 20 – 0 CHI · DET 93% → 98% +5DET 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q26:31Cole Kmet 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)DET 20 – 7 CHI · CHI 2% → 6% +5CHI 2% → 6%+5 pts
- Q20:58Amon-Ra St. Brown 8 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 27 – 7 CHI · DET 94% → 99% +4DET 94% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -290 / CHI +240
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -11.5
- DET 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.7 pts
- DET: Elo 84.4%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -268
- CHI +268 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 27.0 – 20.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1724 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −8 | DET: Jared Goff · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +293 Elo | DET 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 81.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 72.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3232.8 | Points scored | 19.025th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 22.011th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+12.6 | Margin | −3.021st of 32 |
| 4th of 326.16 | Yards per play | 4.5332nd of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7829th of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 32 |
| 1st of 326–0 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.