San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Joshua DobbsPassing29/43, 326 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Patrick Taylor Jr.Rushing17 CAR, 109 YDS
- Ricky PearsallReceiving6 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing25/35, 242 YDS, 4 TD
- Tony Jones Jr.Rushing4 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Trey McBrideReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Tony Jones Jr. 46 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)24–47
- Q45:47Marvin Harrison Jr. 12 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)24–40
- Q414:16Michael Carter 4 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)24–33
- Q34:49Kyle Juszczyk 36 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Jake Moody Kick)24–26
- Q38:28Greg Dortch 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–26
- Q20:00Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q20:16Ricky Pearsall 6 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Jake Moody Kick)17–17
- Q21:51Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)10–17
- Q25:43Joshua Dobbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)10–10
- Q212:55Greg Dortch 23 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)3–10
- Q10:56Chad Ryland 51 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q112:48Jake Moody 51 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:43Joshua Dobbs 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)SF 10 – 10 ARI · SF 19% → 38% +19SF 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q21:51Trey McBride 2 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland Kick)SF 10 – 17 ARI · ARI 61% → 81% +20ARI 61% → 81%+20 pts
- Q20:16Ricky Pearsall 6 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 17 ARI · SF 19% → 39% +21SF 19% → 39%+21 pts
- Q34:49Kyle Juszczyk 36 Yd pass from Joshua Dobbs (Jake Moody Kick)SF 24 – 26 ARI · SF 11% → 33% +22SF 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q414:16Michael Carter 4 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)SF 24 – 33 ARI · ARI 67% → 91% +24ARI 67% → 91%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ARI -4.5
- ML SF +175 / ARI -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI -4.5
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -187
- SF +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 19.0 – 23.5 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −147 | +22 | SF: Joshua Dobbs, usually Brock Purdy · ARI: Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +114 Elo | ARI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.8 | Points scored | 22.117th of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 22.215th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.25 | Yards per play | 5.857th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.17 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5423rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–10 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–1 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.