Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing33/48, 321 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Michael CarterRushing13 CAR, 70 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving12 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing17/32, 189 YDS
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Puka NacuaReceiving10 REC, 129 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:33Joshua Karty 25 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q414:00Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q38:31Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland PAT blocked)6–10
- Q20:27Joshua Karty 53 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q23:23Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:23Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)ARI 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 69% → 86% +17LAR 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q20:27Joshua Karty 53 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 10 LAR · LAR 86% → 91% +5LAR 86% → 91%+5 pts
- Q38:31Trey McBride 1 Yd pass from Kyler Murray (Chad Ryland PAT blocked)ARI 6 – 10 LAR · ARI 8% → 21% +13ARI 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q414:00Chad Ryland 28 Yd Field GoalARI 9 – 10 LAR · ARI 20% → 33% +13ARI 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q46:33Joshua Karty 25 Yd Field GoalARI 9 – 13 LAR · LAR 66% → 84% +18LAR 66% → 84%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -6.5
- ML ARI +270 / LAR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -7.5
- LAR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- LAR: Elo 74.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAR -287
- ARI +287 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 21.0 – 27.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +6 | ARI: Kyler Murray · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +189 Elo | LAR 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 72.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 74.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 21.916th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 23.118th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.217th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.89 | Yards per play | 5.4015th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6726th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 LAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.