Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing17/23, 160 YDS
- Zach CharbonnetRushing15 CAR, 57 YDS
- Noah FantReceiving4 REC, 43 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing16/28, 122 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing12 CAR, 53 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving6 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q20:21Jason Myers 50 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q22:32Cairo Santos 42 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:59Jason Myers 27 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:59Jason Myers 27 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 0 CHI · SEA 65% → 72% +7SEA 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q22:32Cairo Santos 42 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 29% → 39% +9CHI 29% → 39%+9 pts
- Q20:21Jason Myers 50 Yd Field GoalSEA 6 – 3 CHI · SEA 61% → 71% +10SEA 61% → 71%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -4.5
- ML SEA -215 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3.5
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -189
- CHI +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 23.5 – 19.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | −1 | SEA: Geno Smith · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +90 Elo | SEA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 18.926th of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.7 | Points allowed | 22.814th of 32 |
| 15th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −3.924th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.45 | Yards per play | 4.6531st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8831st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–1 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.