Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing18/36, 172 YDS, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing13 CAR, 72 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving5 REC, 55 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing16/24, 121 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing17 CAR, 73 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:41Ryan Fitzgerald 41 Yd Field Goal0–30
- Q410:48Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–27
- Q34:48Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field Goal0–20
- Q311:39Chau Smith-Wade 11 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–17
- Q25:24Ryan Fitzgerald 57 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q16:44Bryce Young 4 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:44Bryce Young 4 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)ATL 0 – 7 CAR · CAR 36% → 54% +19CAR 36% → 54%+19 pts
- Q25:24Ryan Fitzgerald 57 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 10 CAR · CAR 61% → 70% +9CAR 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q311:39Chau Smith-Wade 11 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)ATL 0 – 17 CAR · CAR 75% → 91% +16CAR 75% → 91%+16 pts
- Q34:48Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field GoalATL 0 – 20 CAR · CAR 95% → 98% +3CAR 95% → 98%+3 pts
- Q410:48Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)ATL 0 – 27 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -215 / CAR +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -187
- CAR +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 24.0 – 19.5 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −32 | +4 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 20.123rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 31.432nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.0 | Margin | −11.432nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.1024th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9632nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 2–626th of 32 |
| 24th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 20th of 321475 | Elo rating | 134030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 0–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.