Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing13/21, 135 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 143 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing11/21, 158 YDS, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing9 CAR, 30 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving3 REC, 81 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:22Tyler Allgeier 5 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)22–6
- Q411:16Parker Romo 54 Yd Field Goal15–6
- Q36:17Parker Romo 33 Yd Field Goal12–6
- Q20:00Will Reichard 51 Yd Field Goal9–6
- Q20:25Parker Romo 33 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q27:06Will Reichard 33 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q16:48Parker Romo 29 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q111:12Parker Romo 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:06Will Reichard 33 Yd Field GoalATL 6 – 3 MIN · MIN 40% → 50% +9MIN 40% → 50%+9 pts
- Q20:25Parker Romo 33 Yd Field GoalATL 9 – 3 MIN · ATL 52% → 63% +10ATL 52% → 63%+10 pts
- Q20:00Will Reichard 51 Yd Field GoalATL 9 – 6 MIN · MIN 37% → 48% +10MIN 37% → 48%+10 pts
- Q36:17Parker Romo 33 Yd Field GoalATL 12 – 6 MIN · ATL 56% → 68% +12ATL 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q411:16Parker Romo 54 Yd Field GoalATL 15 – 6 MIN · ATL 77% → 88% +11ATL 77% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -3.5
- ML ATL +145 / MIN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -160
- ATL +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.5 – 24.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −34 | −86 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +155 Elo | MIN 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.9 | Points scored | 25.49th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 19.55th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.0 | Margin | +5.99th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.79 | Yards per play | 5.6012th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2910th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 17th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321421 | Elo rating | 15937th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 0–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.