Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing13/20, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing15 CAR, 68 YDS
- Aaron Jones Sr.Receiving3 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing21/35, 210 YDS, 1 TD
- Caleb WilliamsRushing6 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving3 REC, 68 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:02Rome Odunze 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)27–24
- Q42:53J.J. McCarthy 14 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)27–17
- Q49:46Aaron Jones Sr. 27 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Adam Thielen for Two-Point Conversion)20–17
- Q412:13Justin Jefferson 13 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q312:51Nahshon Wright 74 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)6–17
- Q20:06Will Reichard 59 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:24Cairo Santos 42 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q212:48Will Reichard 31 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:04Caleb Williams 9 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:04Caleb Williams 9 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)MIN 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 50% → 68% +18CHI 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q312:51Nahshon Wright 74 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos Kick)MIN 6 – 17 CHI · CHI 64% → 84% +20CHI 64% → 84%+20 pts
- Q412:13Justin Jefferson 13 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)MIN 12 – 17 CHI · MIN 6% → 24% +18MIN 6% → 24%+18 pts
- Q49:46Aaron Jones Sr. 27 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Adam Thielen for Two-Point Conversion)MIN 20 – 17 CHI · MIN 22% → 68% +46MIN 22% → 68%+46 pts
- Q42:53J.J. McCarthy 14 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 27 – 17 CHI · MIN 81% → >99% +19MIN 81% → >99%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML MIN -110 / CHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- CHI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.0 – 22.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −98 | −8 | MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +11 Elo | MIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 18.228th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 21.813th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.9 | Margin | −3.523rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.5332nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8630th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 4th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 3–520th of 32 |
| 25th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15128th of 32 |
| 8th of 321576 | Elo rating | 143923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.