Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing19/30, 185 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing17 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving7 REC, 58 YDS
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing33/43, 377 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing12 CAR, 47 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving8 REC, 92 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:18Malik Heath 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)25–27
- Q46:12Emanuel Wilson 5 Yd Rush (Jordan Love Pass to Romeo Doubs for Two-Point Conversion)18–27
- Q30:51Cam Akers 9 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)10–27
- Q35:07Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)10–20
- Q39:44Jordan Addison 18 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)3–20
- Q20:00Will Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q22:16Will Reichard 25 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q211:52Jalen Nailor 31 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)3–7
- Q11:47Brandon McManus 22 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:52Jalen Nailor 31 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)GB 3 – 7 MIN · MIN 41% → 62% +21MIN 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q22:16Will Reichard 25 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 10 MIN · MIN 64% → 73% +9MIN 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q39:44Jordan Addison 18 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Will Reichard Kick)GB 3 – 20 MIN · MIN 84% → 95% +11MIN 84% → 95%+11 pts
- Q35:07Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 10 – 20 MIN · GB 3% → 14% +11GB 3% → 14%+11 pts
- Q42:18Malik Heath 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 25 – 27 MIN · GB <1% → 26% +26GB <1% → 26%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -0.5
- ML GB -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -102
- GB +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.5 – 24.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1668 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +13 | GB: Jordan Love · MIN: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.5 | Points scored | 26.49th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 18.44th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.4 | Margin | +8.06th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.23 | Yards per play | 5.6312th of 32 |
| 6th of 325.15 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2712th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–1 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.