Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing18/41, 166 YDS
- Cam AkersRushing6 CAR, 65 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving3 REC, 54 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing27/33, 231 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing23 CAR, 139 YDS, 3 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:14Jahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)9–31
- Q413:06Jahmyr Gibbs 13 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)9–24
- Q32:30Jahmyr Gibbs 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)9–17
- Q39:55Will Reichard 51 Yd Field Goal9–10
- Q20:00Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q20:20Will Reichard 31 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q26:35Will Reichard 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q11:43Jahmyr Gibbs 25 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:43Jahmyr Gibbs 25 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 0 – 7 DET · DET 58% → 76% +18DET 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q20:00Jake Bates 48 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 10 DET · DET 60% → 70% +10DET 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q39:55Will Reichard 51 Yd Field GoalMIN 9 – 10 DET · MIN 29% → 40% +11MIN 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q32:30Jahmyr Gibbs 10 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 9 – 17 DET · DET 60% → 86% +26DET 60% → 86%+26 pts
- Q413:06Jahmyr Gibbs 13 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 9 – 24 DET · DET 88% → 98% +10DET 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML MIN +137 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 61.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -147
- MIN +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 27.0 – 29.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 56.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1687 | 1745 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | — | MIN: Sam Darnold · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +78 Elo | DET 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3226.4 | Points scored | 33.31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 20.88th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.6 | Margin | +12.51st of 32 |
| 11th of 325.68 | Yards per play | 6.242nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8329th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–4 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–3 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.