Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing21/29, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing20 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving9 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Malik WillisPassing10/13, 136 YDS
- Emanuel WilsonRushing14 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Malik HeathReceiving3 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 51 Yd Field Goal24–22
- Q40:54Brandon McManus 55 Yd Field Goal21–22
- Q44:28Emanuel Wilson 21 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–19
- Q410:02DJ Moore 32 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)21–13
- Q21:57Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal14–13
- Q211:12Josh Jacobs 9 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)14–10
- Q214:17D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)14–3
- Q12:24Brandon McManus 37 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:34Josh Blackwell 94 Yd Punt Return (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:12Josh Jacobs 9 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)CHI 14 – 10 GB · GB 44% → 65% +21GB 44% → 65%+21 pts
- Q410:02DJ Moore 32 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 21 – 13 GB · CHI 42% → 81% +39CHI 42% → 81%+39 pts
- Q44:28Emanuel Wilson 21 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 21 – 19 GB · GB 5% → 41% +36GB 5% → 41%+36 pts
- Q40:54Brandon McManus 55 Yd Field GoalCHI 21 – 22 GB · GB 18% → 73% +55GB 18% → 73%+55 pts
- Q40:00Cairo Santos 51 Yd Field GoalCHI 24 – 22 GB · CHI 0% → 100% +100CHI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- GB -10.5
- ML CHI +360 / GB -500
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -13
- GB 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- GB: Elo 86.6%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -399
- CHI +399 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 15.5 – 26.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −5 | +7 | CHI: Caleb Williams · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +324 Elo | GB 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 84.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 79.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 27.48th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 19.66th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.9 | Margin | +7.85th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.56 | Yards per play | 6.145th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.85 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2310th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–10 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–7 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 GB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.