Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Sam DarnoldPassing25/40, 245 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing13 CAR, 48 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing19/27, 209 YDS, 2 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing16 CAR, 76 YDS
- Tyler HigbeeReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q35:05T.J. Hockenson 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–27
- Q37:19Joshua Karty 44 Yd Field Goal3–27
- Q20:15Davis Allen 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)3–24
- Q24:35Jared Verse 57 Yd Fumble Recovery (Joshua Karty Kick)3–17
- Q214:17Will Reichard 34 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q14:01Joshua Karty 34 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q110:22Kyren Williams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:22Kyren Williams 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 0 – 7 LAR · LAR 45% → 63% +18LAR 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q14:01Joshua Karty 34 Yd Field GoalMIN 0 – 10 LAR · LAR 64% → 72% +7LAR 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q214:17Will Reichard 34 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 10 LAR · MIN 27% → 35% +8MIN 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q24:35Jared Verse 57 Yd Fumble Recovery (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 3 – 17 LAR · LAR 68% → 85% +17LAR 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q20:15Davis Allen 13 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)MIN 3 – 24 LAR · LAR 87% → 96% +9LAR 87% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -135 / LAR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- LAR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 25.0 – 22.5 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +13 | +11 | MIN: Sam Darnold · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 21.620th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.5 | Points allowed | 22.717th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.9 | Margin | −1.117th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 5.4216th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6826th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 LAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.