Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing17/32, 167 YDS, 3 TD
- Baker MayfieldRushing5 CAR, 39 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing27/42, 298 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler AllgeierRushing10 CAR, 24 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:59Emeka Egbuka 25 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin PAT Failed)23–20
- Q42:17Michael Penix Jr. 4 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)17–20
- Q30:20Younghoe Koo 36 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q37:26Bucky Irving 9 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–10
- Q20:53Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q26:53Emeka Egbuka 30 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–7
- Q210:17Chase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q113:14Bijan Robinson 50 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Younghoe Koo Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q113:14Bijan Robinson 50 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Younghoe Koo Kick)TB 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 49% → 66% +17ATL 49% → 66%+17 pts
- Q26:53Emeka Egbuka 30 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 7 ATL · TB 38% → 60% +22TB 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q37:26Bucky Irving 9 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 17 – 10 ATL · TB 51% → 77% +26TB 51% → 77%+26 pts
- Q42:17Michael Penix Jr. 4 Yd Rush (Younghoe Koo Kick)TB 17 – 20 ATL · ATL 10% → 83% +73ATL 10% → 83%+73 pts
- Q40:59Emeka Egbuka 25 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin PAT Failed)TB 23 – 20 ATL · TB 7% → 93% +86TB 7% → 93%+86 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML TB -110 / ATL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -4.5
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.7 pts
- TB: Elo 65.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 23.0 – 24.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −47 | TB: Baker Mayfield · ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +113 Elo | TB 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.5 | Points scored | 22.913th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 24.923rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+6.9 | Margin | −2.019th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.21 | Yards per play | 5.798th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5020th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–518th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 13th of 321533 | Elo rating | 143224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.