Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing24/35, 268 YDS, 2 TD
- Jayden DanielsRushing13 CAR, 36 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving7 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing15/18, 185 YDS, 2 TD
- Bucky IrvingRushing17 CAR, 77 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving7 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Zane Gonzalez 37 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q44:41Chase McLaughlin 32 Yd Field Goal20–20
- Q49:46Terry McLaurin 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)20–17
- Q34:31Bucky Irving 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–17
- Q310:30Zane Gonzalez 22 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q20:10Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–10
- Q21:52Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q29:26Dyami Brown 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–3
- Q111:35Chase McLaughlin 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:10Mike Evans 1 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)WSH 10 – 10 TB · TB 33% → 57% +24TB 33% → 57%+24 pts
- Q34:31Bucky Irving 4 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)WSH 13 – 17 TB · TB 43% → 72% +29TB 43% → 72%+29 pts
- Q49:46Terry McLaurin 5 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Zane Gonzalez Kick)WSH 20 – 17 TB · WSH 23% → 64% +41WSH 23% → 64%+41 pts
- Q44:41Chase McLaughlin 32 Yd Field GoalWSH 20 – 20 TB · TB 27% → 53% +26TB 27% → 53%+26 pts
- Q40:00Zane Gonzalez 37 Yd Field GoalWSH 23 – 20 TB · WSH 46% → 100% +54WSH 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3.5
- ML WSH +145 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- TB: Elo 56.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -152
- WSH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 24.0 – 27.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | — | WSH: Jayden Daniels · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +44 Elo | TB 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.5 | Points scored | 29.54th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 22.616th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +6.96th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 6.214th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.40 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4618th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–6 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.